Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
